If, like me, you’ve been surprised that a pro-choice candidate like Rudy Giuliani could continue to come out on top among Republicans in presidential horserace polls, the answer must surely, at least in part, be in these results from the Pew Reseach Center:
Most people, including most Republicans, including most self-identified Republicans who say that social issues are very important to them, still don’t know.
The rest of the latest Pew survey is about the impact of religion, and the perceptions of how religious the candidates are, on the race. The answer is murky. Here’s the top of pollster Andrew Kohut’s analysis:
“So far religion is not proving to be a clear-cut positive in the 2008 presidential campaign. The candidates viewed by voters as the least religious among the leading contenders are the current frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican nominations – Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, respectively. On the other hand, the candidate seen as far and away the most religious – Mitt Romney – is handicapped by this perception because of voter concerns about Mormonism.”
Faith is a factor for many, and shared values that presumably come with it.
Al Smith found that out, and Kennedy had his problems with it, but neither had issues about shared values to contend with — only imputed values.
Once the smoke settles, I believe that this issue will reside with many others (keep us safe, be a good manager, be firm about crime, be positive towards education and our children, and on and on) when the voters decide who shares their values, and the results are somewhat unpredictable at present because so much of the next twelve months is unknown.