Good Monday noon,
The first Star Tribune poll since the paper forced out long-time Minnesota Poll director, Rob Daves, is full of bad news for the three major U.S. Senate candidates.
Norm Coleman’s approval rating (45%) is at a level (anything below 50 is considered this level) that paints a big V for vulnerable on the chest of any incumbent.
Al Franken’s biggest problem is that only 27 percent of Minnesotan’s view him favorably, compared with 34 percent unfavorably. That is a blinking red sign that reads “Electability Issues.” Even among DFLers, fewer than half view Franken favorably, which should create an opening for someone to challenge Franken for the nomination.
But his best-known challenger isn’t very well known at all. Only 35 percent of the adults polled (note, adults, not likely voters nor even registered voters), new Ciresi’s name or knew enough about him to have an impression.
Doug Tice, my very esteemed former blog partner, captured the poll nicely, in imagining the reaction of the three candidates to the numbers:
“They probably all feel pretty lousy about their own numbers but take what comfort they can from the lousy numbers of the others.”
p.s. The poll is also tied to the launch of the Strib’s new political website, Politically Connected.” Good luck to my esteemed former colleague Dennis McGrath, who is running that initiative.
[…] which should create an opening for someone to challenge Franken for the nomination." Source: Eric Blank Ink, October 1, […]
[…] which should create an opening for someone to challenge Franken for the nomination." Source: Eric Black Ink, October 1, […]
It is a shame that Peter Agre did not run. I am really worried that Al Franken
may not be able to knock off The Norm and that Ciresi will not be able to
do it either.
Too bad.
So this is it. . . “A guided tour of facts and arguments that one humble ink-stained wretch deems important, interesting or both.”
Probably . . . Fair Enough. It came under the banner: Crack for Political Junkies.
Uuh, seems to me other polls at the same time provided notably different outcomes.
Generally, with the presupposition that most polls get the results they are looking for (it’s all in what you ask, how you ask, the order in which you ask it, the tone of voice used, the pool from which polled persons are selected, time of day for phoning, the size of the sampling, the built-in bias of the assumptions used to extrapolate, and a host of other controllable factors) polls are most useful for reinforcing the views of the pollers and for providing fodder for journalists.
For a good rule of thumb, it seems to me best to just ignore all political polls except the ones on election day.