Signs point to yes, U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad has left the door open to retracting his retirement announcement. If he does, it will be a blockbuster development in Minnesota politics with possible consequences in the national race for Congress. (And it would mess up several folks who were preparing to run for the open Third District seat.)
Last night, Ramstad’s top Washington aide, Dean Peterson, emailed me this statement, in full:
“Jim has been overwhelmed by the huge number of Minnesotans urging him to reconsider, but he has no plans to run for re-election.”
If that strikes you as confirmation of Ramstad’s Sept. 17 retirement announcement, read on:
Late last week, a well-plugged-in source tipped me off to rumors on Capitol Hill that the National Republican Congressional Committee was urging Ramstad, 61, to reconsider his decision and seek another term, and that Ramstad was seriously considering it.
The NRCC part of the story makes perfect sense. At this point, the Repubs have more vulnerable incumbents and are being out-fund-raised by the Dems at every level. They sit in a leaking ship trying to figure out which holes to try to plug.
With Ramstad’s retirement announcement, the GOP boat sprung another pretty big leak. Three moderate Republicans (Clark McGregor, Bill Frenzel and Ramstad) have held Minnesota’s suburban Third District since 1960. (That’s 24 terms of GOP control.) Ramstad has won his recent races by laughably easy margins (65-35 in the Democratic tide election of 2006.)
Although the Third has been blue-ing up over recent cycles (it went for Gore in 2000 and Klobuchar in 2006), the GOP felt confident of holding the seat as long as the likeable, moderate Ramstad was on the ticket.
Without him, the NRCC faces spending a million dollars or more on a race that is a toss-up at best. The party would rather keep the seat and spend the money elsewhere. Of course they would ask him to, but would Ramstad reconsider?
Starting Friday night and through the three-day weekend (federal employees get Columbus Day off), I left phone calls and emails for Ramstad and his top aides every day. On Sunday and Monday, the messages stated what I had heard about Ramstad reconsidering his decision and asking the congressman or his aides to please stop me from posting this if it was untrue.
I have had friendly, respectful exchanges with Ramstad and these aides in the past. If they were able to say there was nothing to the story, they wouldn’t have let four days pass. I was prepared to post this piece this morning, based on the non-response.
Then came Peterson’s email.:
“Jim has been overwhelmed by the huge number of Minnesotans urging him to reconsider, but he has no plans to run for re-election.”
Peterson sent it as the congressional office was closing, and didn’t respond to e-mails asking to discuss more precisely what it does and doesn’t mean. So let’s take it at face value:
Ramstad is being urged to reconsider. He’s touched by it. He didn’t say that he won’t do it. But he has “no plans” to do it.
Last night, I ran the language of the email past several experienced politicalese decoders. They agreed that Ramstad had left the door open, that the “no plans” formulation was a familiar way of not committing yourself, and that if someone wants to make a Shermanesque statement of non-candidacy, they can easily make a clearer one than that.
I’m not saying Ramstad is going to unretire. He says he has “no plans” to do so. I don’t know what the odds are. But he is listening to people urging him to seek a 10th term in the U.S. House, and he is thinking about it.
Cross-posted at Minnesota Monitor.
I’d love to know what they are offering him.
[…] Eric Black is reporting that the NRCC is trying to recruit Jim Ramstad rescind his retirement and run again. Kevin Diaz of the Star Tribune confirms, quoting an NRCC operative as saying: “If grassroots Republicans in Minnesota support the idea of Congressman Ramstad running for reelection, then Chairman [Tom] Cole [R-Okla.] seconds that sentiment,” […]
Why would Ramstad do it? Right now everyone sees him as a statesman, who has done a good job. If he comes back, it is only to protect the GOP from potential disaster. In this case, his legacy becomes that of a political hack who is no better than the rest of them. I think he’ll choose the classy path, and pursue those other interests he talked about in farewell.
Mr. Black,
Al Gore did not invent the internet, nor did he win the 3rd Congressional District in 2000. Governor Bush won CD3 and quite handily.
The numbers follow:
Bush 170,412 49.794%
Gore 154,997 45.290%
Thank you.
Mike Campbell
Thanks Mike. You’re right. I was wrong. I’ll file a correction. cheers, eb
Thanks for the correction, Eric.
A thorough analysis of the 3rd will show that it remains a solid Republican district. The perceived trend to the left is just that: a perception. Senator K. is an outlier in the statistical model–she even won the 6th, by nearly 5%, where no one claims the blues.
Kiffmeyer carried the 3rd by over 4% in 2006, Pawlenty trounced Hatch by approximately 12.4%, and Johnson beat Swanson by a whisker, all in a very difficult year for Republicans. The best the Dems did in a statewide race in the 3rd was in the Auditor’s race where Otto touched out Anderson by 1.3% and change.
Let’s not forget that in 2002 Norm turned Vice President Mondale to dust beating him by about 16.2%. And Stanek won the district with 75.16%–a non-partisan race against a weak challenger no doubt, but a data point with at least some relevance.
If this is a trend to the left, it’s not a stretch to say the Republicans will take it every time.
One might suspect what may be happening with this perception is nothing more than a wishful prophecy to create an image of Republican weakness. Not unlike the Star Tribune polls that routinely show Republicans far behind what the actual numbers are.
Thanks again Eric, enjoyed the conversation.
All the best.
Pawlenty’s percentage in the 3rd in 2006 was greater than his percentage in 2002.
51.40%–2002
52.64%–2006
[…] Cillizza makes no mention of the possibility of the Republican incumbent, Jim Ramstad, changing his mind about retiring. The air seems to be going out of the GOP effort to get Ramstad to reconsider, but Ramstad has not closed the door on that option by issuing a more Shermanesque statement than his recent “no plans to run for reelection.” […]
[…] Ramstad announced his plans to retire, Black Ink reported on Oct. 10 that he was reconsidering and that the National Republican Congressional Committee was urging him to […]
[…] Ink has reported for two months that Ramstad is considering changing his mind. Last week, my colleague Joe Bodell and I reported […]