Good Monday morning,

Washington Post politically obsessed blogger Chris Cillizza of “The Fix,” who attempts to track every race, lists Minnesota’s Third District as the third most likely of U.S. House district to change parties in the ‘08 election (which would mean from red — Republicans have held this seat since 1960 — to blue). Minnesota-3 moved up from sixth place the last time Cillizza compiled the likeliest-to-switch list.

Cillizza makes no mention of the possibility of the Republican incumbent, Jim Ramstad, changing his mind about retiring. The air seems to be going out of the GOP effort to get Ramstad to reconsider, but Ramstad has not closed the door on that option by issuing a more Shermanesque statement than his recent “no plans to run for reelection.”

In his brief entry about the race, Cillizza suggests that the Third District (a collection of suburbs that wraps north, west and south around Minneapolis) is a hotbed of opposition to the Iraq war. Not sure where he gets this info, since the most recent publicly discussed poll of the district of which I’m aware didn’t ask about the war. But I will say this:

From conversations with Republicans, I know they are hoping that by election day, the war will be perceived as winding down and the difference between typical Democratic and Republican positions on it will be small. Is that wishful thinking?

If the Iraq war remains as unpopular as it is today and is the the overwhelming voting issue in Nov. 2008, it will tip many close races to the Dems.