The National Intelligence Estimate on the subject, representing the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, is that Iran halted weapons development in 2003, probably couldn’t process enough fuel for a bomb until the middle of the next decade, if it were to resume efforts to make such a weapon.
I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but I had been plenty worried that 2008 was going to be a year of buildup to a U.S. bombing attack on Iran. This is going to make it a lot harder to build the case for any such idea.
Here’s a PDF of the NIE’s key conclusions.
Here’s the New York Times bulletin on the report.
That’s excellent news. I hope that they’re correct.
Why ever did Bushco release this intel estimate? After the latest nonsense out of Bush’s mouth about Iran and “WWIII”? After Cheney’s recent sabre rattlin’?
Is the jig finally up for Bushco? Has their mountain of insane policies finally caught up with them?
The economy is about to enter serious meltdown, with the fraud-based financial sector in ruins, and the housing market in the worst recession since the Great Depression. On the brink of this serious recession, the national debt has been increased by 65% over the past seven years to over $9 trillion, leaving very little room for fiscal policy, if the Congress could even agree what that might be.
The US “consumer” is facing deflationary housing values, tapped out and overextended, with a negative national savings rate. The dollar is collapsing, while the Fed lowers interest rates to save Wall Street fraudsters and America’s super-wealthy (always the top priority). Oil is at almost record levels, ensuring perpetual mammoth trade deficits. Energy and food prices are at runaway inflation rates, with no end in sight.
The Iraq Occupation costs $12 billion a month, the surge has shot its bolt, the ground forces are broken, back to hunkering down to avoid casualties. The Middle East teeters on the brink of complete collapse.
Can it be that REALITY (of all things!) has finally intruded into the Bushco Brain (whoever that is)? That they are trying to signal that they want to find some way of of the international catastrophe they have caused as the American economy implodes?
How else to explain this stunning “Iranian Evildoers? Never mind….”? Most perplexing.
I wonder what forced this unaccustomed truthfulness out of the Bush white house?
In math, when one multiplies two negatives, the result is positive. The new year is only a few weeks away and so let us hope that the two negative minded ( the present presidents of Iran and USA)men had some different electrical charge in their brain and will think a bit more positively towards this globe.
Here is hoping that the collective global mind moves away from the far extremes and moves towards the common good for all people.
At this stage since I do not have the previlage of all of these intelligence, I will use hope as a start for the best for 2008 and beyond.
Om Shanthi Om( means Peace in Sanskrit)
Jay
There’s speculation today that some members of Congress who had seen the NIE demanded that McConnell release it to expose Bushco’s outrageous lies and “WWIII” insanity. Or that McConnell did it on his own to demonstrate intelligence community independence. Who knows.
But perhaps that new National Director of Intelligence post isn’t so weak and worthless after all! And if this Persian rug has been pulled out from under Bushco against their wishes, it couldn’t happen to a more disreputable administration.
Basically, all they do is lie. Over and over, on every subject.
[…] Bush seems to be saying that yesterday’s big news that U.S. intelligence now believes Iran is not actively developing a nuclear bomb doesn’t […]
My guess (without knowing exactly who it was within the administration that actually declassified this) is that Cheney and the cabal were getting serious about bombing Iran, and the intelligence services, having been burned and humiliated by the Iraq/WMD fiasco were determined not to take the fall again.
The other possibility that comes to mind was that it was clear that the administration’s “diplomatic” efforts weren’t going to succeed in getting Iran to give up uranium enrichment. Rational people in the administration (there must be _some!_) knew that the military option would be a disaster, and the only way out of the box was to declare that it turns out Iran isn’t such a threat after all. Showdown averted.
I find the former _far_ more likely than the latter. There are some serious power struggles going on in this administration.