A Newsweek poll out Friday afternoon had the GOP race among likely Iowa caucus goers:
- Mike Huckabee: 39 percent
- Mitt Romney: 17
- Fred Thompson: 10
- Rudy Giuliani: 9
- Ron Paul: 8
- John McCain: 6
If this is right, it’s mighty impressive. This poll had a large sample, was taken Wednesday and Thursday by the most tried and trusted methodology (human telephone interviews) and had a smal margin for error (three percent). Using the same methodology in late September, Romney led Huckabee by 25-6 percent.
The comment from Newsweek’s pollster, Larry Hugick of Princeton Survey Research Associates: “You rarely see anything like [Huckabee’s surge].”
On the Dem side
Newsweek/Princeton had Hillary Clinton with an insignificant 30-29 percent lead over Barack Obama among Democratic leaning registered Iowa voters. But among likely caucus goers it was:
- Obama: 35
- Clinton: 29
- John Edwards: 18.
- Bill Richardson: 9.
Obama’s lead borders on statistical significance and shows a continuation of a surge that polls have been picking up for a couple of weeks, but is nothing compared to the Huckabee tsunami.
By the way, most of the presidential poll results I’ve posted under crack for political junkies have been from Iowa. That because I assume all other numbers (national or other state numbers) will be affect when Iowa completes its first in the nation caucuses Jan. 3.
Another reminder: In Iowa caucuses, on a precinct-by-precinct basis, candidates who receive less than 15 percent on the first round are declared “non-viable” and their supporters are given a chance to align with their second choice, if that candidate is viable. So second choices could have a big impact on the final result.
But just wait till Willie Horton catches up with the Arkansas preacherman:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/04/documents-expose-huckabee_n_75362.html
Karl: I know what you’re saying but do you think Willie Horton is the right analogy? I think Willie Horton represents a dirty trick by Republican strategist Lee Atwater to use racism to misrepresent Mike Dukasis’s policies as Governor. Dukasis’s fingerprints were not all over Willie Horton’s furlough pass like Huckabee’s fingerprints are on Wayne Dumond’s parole. Rather than Willie Horton, Huckabee’s conduct reminds me of the practice of Catholic Church cardinals, archbishops and bishops moving serial child abusing priests to new parishes without disclosure to the unsuspecting laity. Huckabee was able to cover up the facts surrounding Dumond’s parole when he ran for Governor. The Iowa race will begin to show how closely Republicans pay attention to the facts and how much they walk the walk of their professed values.
I think that the Huckabee surge is more a comment on the other wierdos in the Republican lineup.
I’ll agree Willie Horton is perhaps not the best analogy. I used it mainly because of the common element of paroled criminals, but also for the expected effect. To be honest, I couldn’t even tell you if Dumond is black or white so I don’t think the race card has even been dealt here. In any event, the Dumond case will surely percolate through the MSM once Huckabee shows any signs of taking a lead anywhere.
I think the Huckabee surge can be mostly attributed to the Youtube debate and his response to the Jesus question. Being able to provide a laugh to a question like that (which wasn’t really answered, at least in the clips I saw) was brilliant. His stock rose tremendously through that one, over-publicized quip.
The other point about the Dumond story is that Dumond was taken up as a cause by the Clinton hating crowd on the grounds that Dumond must have been innocent because his victim was Clinton’s second cousin once removed. How can you argue with logic like that?
Huckabee’s star is also going to fall because (a)the Club for Growth is starting to trash him for not being economically conservative as they define it, (b)he’s got a fair amount of petty graft on his record, and (c)he has had, and apparently hasn’t repudiated, some completely strange ideas like quarantining people with AIDS.
While the Republicans have a legitimate fight underway, without a clear cut leader, I had thought the democratic race was a foregone conclusion. As a conservative, I am at a loss here. I thought for sure Iowa would be Romney - Rudy 1-2, because of the conservative Christian base there.
Tell me, my liberal posters, what do you make of the democratic race?
After a long search, the Christian right has found their candidate. They tried out Romney even though he’s a Mormon and has a bad record on their issues. They tried Guilliani, despite having really nothing in common with him. They tried Fred Thompson, but soon figured out that was just a big joke. And then Huckabee came along, and he was just right. I think people didn’t give him a chance because he hasn’t raised much money and got little mainstream media exposure, but he is everything Christian right voters were looking for.
I think Giulliani’s recent scandals cost him any Christian right support he had, and I think the rest of his support will soon follow once everyone figures out what an utter and complete fraud Giulliani is.
[…] Eric Black added an interesting post today on Newsweek poll has Huckabee’s Iowa surge at breathtaking new heightHere’s a small reading […]
I had a dream (no, a nightmare) last night. Mike Huckabee had won the election next November and had just been sworn in as the next president. He handed me a Glock and said “carry this at all times, shoot every doctor you find who does abortions and then study Creationism for the rest of the week”. I woke up shaking and covered with sweat.
Read Elmer Gantry and be reassured.